Chapter 01

Building a sustainable workforce

Sophie CareemFounder, Ethicare Resourcing · former NHS change leader
Toolkit · 01 of 08

Before you recruit a single person, you need to know the size and shape of the hole you are filling.

Nearly every conversation I have starts with today’s vacancy: the rota that won’t cover, the service manager who hasn’t slept. That pressure is real, and I never dismiss it. But the organisations that escape the cycle are the ones that also look up: at what demand will do over ten years, at what the domestic pipeline will deliver, and at the honest size of the gap between the two.

International recruitment can’t carry a workforce strategy on its own. It earns its place alongside the slower work: training people at home, keeping the staff you already have, redesigning roles where the old shape no longer fits. Get that balance right and patients keep getting safe, timely care.

International recruitment should complement (not replace) investment in local workforce development.
Part 01

Understanding future demand

Before anything else, understand what your workforce will need to look like over the next five to ten years, not just what’s vacant today.

What drives future demand

Population & need

  • Population growth
  • Ageing populations
  • Rising demand for care
  • Changing disease patterns

Growing services

  • Cancer services
  • Mental health
  • Diagnostic demand
  • Community care

System change

  • New hospitals & services
  • Regional population shifts
  • New models of care

Questions for leaders

  • Which services are expected to grow?
  • Where will demand increase most?
  • Which professions are most likely to face shortages?
  • How will changing models of care reshape what we need?

The scale is not abstract. Three numbers frame why planning for it, rather than reacting to it, matters.

~11MThe shortfall of health workers the WHO projects worldwide by 2030, concentrated in lower-income countries.WHO
13,000+Additional nurses New Zealand needs within a decade, alongside more than 5,000 doctors.Health NZ Workforce Plan
70,700The full-time nurse shortfall Australia projects by 2035 on current trends.AU Health & Aged Care
Part 02

Understanding domestic workforce supply

Look internationally only once you know what the domestic pipeline can deliver.

Where the domestic workforce comes from

The pipeline

  • University programmes
  • Clinical placements
  • Graduation numbers
  • Professional registration

Staying or leaving

  • Graduate retention
  • Migration overseas
  • Workforce attrition

Growing your own

  • Return-to-practice
  • Upskilling existing staff
  • Advanced practice roles

Questions to ask

  • How many graduates are entering the profession?
  • How many stay working in New Zealand or Australia?
  • Are enough clinical placements available?
  • Can university capacity realistically increase?
  • Which professions see the greatest attrition?
A workforce strategy should begin by maximising domestic talent before it looks internationally.
Part 03

Identifying the workforce gap

Bring demand and supply together. The distance between them is what workforce planning addresses.

The workforce gap, simply put
Future workforce demand
−
Current workforce + Expected graduates − Retirements − Attrition
=
Your future workforce gap

That gap (not this month’s vacancy list) is the real basis of workforce planning. Sizing it is what turns reactive hiring into strategy.

Where the gap shows up

  • Vacancy rates and turnover
  • Agency and locum reliance
  • Retirement profile
  • Critical services and rural shortages
Best practice · Sizing your real gap
  • Project demand five to ten years out, not this year’s vacancies.
  • Map domestic supply through training, attrition and hours, not headcount.
  • Subtract honestly: the remainder is your planning number.
  • Re-run it every year. It moves.
Part 04

Taking a whole-system approach

When neighbouring organisations bid for the same handful of clinicians, everyone pays more and someone still goes without. Plan together where you can, so international recruitment flows to the places patients feel the shortage most.

What coordination looks like

  • Shared workforce intelligence
  • Regional collaboration
  • Clear prioritisation
  • Shared recruitment campaigns
  • Less duplicated effort
  • Better patient outcomes

Chapter 3 shows what that coordination looks like in practice, governance and supervision included: Planning & preparation.

Part 05

Where international recruitment fits

This is the heart of the chapter. International recruitment works best as the last lever pulled, not the first. It belongs at the end of a longer chain of workforce investment, and it weakens whenever it is asked to stand in for that chain.

One part of a balanced strategy
Domestic education
Retention
Flexible workforce
Workforce redesign
Return-to-practice
International recruitment
A sustainable workforce

The strongest strategies combine several of these rather than leaning on one. Recruit internationally without investing in retention and you simply swap one staffing problem for another; focus on retention alone and you may still fall short if too few graduates are coming through.

And there’s a newer constraint worth naming early. Increasingly, the limiting factor is neither recruitment nor registration but whether organisations have the supervision capacity to safely support internationally trained professionals into practice. A workforce plan has to account for that capacity before recruitment begins, which is where Chapter 3 picks up.

Increasing international recruitment alone won’t solve workforce shortages if we lack the supervision capacity to support people safely into practice.
Part 06

Key principles

1

Think beyond today’s vacancies

Plan for future demand rather than reacting to immediate shortages.

2

Invest in domestic development

Support education, clinical placements and graduate retention.

3

Use workforce intelligence

Base decisions on evidence, not assumptions.

4

Take a whole-system approach

Collaborate across organisations wherever you can.

5

Use international recruitment strategically

Recruit internationally where domestic supply can’t meet demand.

6

Measure long-term success

Success is better patient care, resilience and retention, not simply filled vacancies.

An Ethicare reflection

Sophie Careem, founder of Ethicare Resourcing
From our founder

One of the biggest things I’ve noticed working across Australia and New Zealand is that organisations often focus on today’s vacancy rather than tomorrow’s workforce. International recruitment is sometimes viewed as a response to immediate pressure, when in reality it works best as part of a much broader strategy.

I’ve seen exceptional results where organisations plan ahead, invest in their domestic workforce, and use international recruitment strategically to address genuine gaps. No single initiative builds a strong workforce. Combining the right approaches at the right time does.

Sophie CareemFounder, Ethicare Resourcing · former NHS change leader

Before you recruit internationally: a checklist

Workforce planning checklist
  • Do we understand our projected workforce demand over the next 5–10 years?
  • Have we assessed domestic graduate supply?
  • Do we know our retirement profile?
  • Are we retaining the staff we already have?
  • Have we identified our critical workforce risks?
  • Could workforce redesign or advanced practice help?
  • Have we decided where international recruitment will add the greatest value?
  • How will we measure success?

Sources

  1. World Health Organization, health workforce projections to 2030.
  2. Health New Zealand / Te Whatu Ora, Health Workforce Plan 2023/24.
  3. Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care, Nursing Supply and Demand Study 2023–2035.
  4. OECD, International Migration Outlook 2025.

Building your international workforce?

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We help healthcare services recruit internationally, and make it stick

Specialist recruitment across New Zealand and Australia — sourcing, screening, registration and relocation, with support that continues well past the offer.