Before you recruit a single person, you need to know the size and shape of the hole you are filling.
Nearly every conversation I have starts with today’s vacancy: the rota that won’t cover, the service manager who hasn’t slept. That pressure is real, and I never dismiss it. But the organisations that escape the cycle are the ones that also look up: at what demand will do over ten years, at what the domestic pipeline will deliver, and at the honest size of the gap between the two.
International recruitment can’t carry a workforce strategy on its own. It earns its place alongside the slower work: training people at home, keeping the staff you already have, redesigning roles where the old shape no longer fits. Get that balance right and patients keep getting safe, timely care.
Understanding future demand
Before anything else, understand what your workforce will need to look like over the next five to ten years, not just what’s vacant today.
Population & need
- Population growth
- Ageing populations
- Rising demand for care
- Changing disease patterns
Growing services
- Cancer services
- Mental health
- Diagnostic demand
- Community care
System change
- New hospitals & services
- Regional population shifts
- New models of care
Questions for leaders
- Which services are expected to grow?
- Where will demand increase most?
- Which professions are most likely to face shortages?
- How will changing models of care reshape what we need?
The scale is not abstract. Three numbers frame why planning for it, rather than reacting to it, matters.
Understanding domestic workforce supply
Look internationally only once you know what the domestic pipeline can deliver.
The pipeline
- University programmes
- Clinical placements
- Graduation numbers
- Professional registration
Staying or leaving
- Graduate retention
- Migration overseas
- Workforce attrition
Growing your own
- Return-to-practice
- Upskilling existing staff
- Advanced practice roles
Questions to ask
- How many graduates are entering the profession?
- How many stay working in New Zealand or Australia?
- Are enough clinical placements available?
- Can university capacity realistically increase?
- Which professions see the greatest attrition?
Identifying the workforce gap
Bring demand and supply together. The distance between them is what workforce planning addresses.
That gap (not this month’s vacancy list) is the real basis of workforce planning. Sizing it is what turns reactive hiring into strategy.
Where the gap shows up
- Vacancy rates and turnover
- Agency and locum reliance
- Retirement profile
- Critical services and rural shortages
- Project demand five to ten years out, not this year’s vacancies.
- Map domestic supply through training, attrition and hours, not headcount.
- Subtract honestly: the remainder is your planning number.
- Re-run it every year. It moves.
Taking a whole-system approach
When neighbouring organisations bid for the same handful of clinicians, everyone pays more and someone still goes without. Plan together where you can, so international recruitment flows to the places patients feel the shortage most.
What coordination looks like
- Shared workforce intelligence
- Regional collaboration
- Clear prioritisation
- Shared recruitment campaigns
- Less duplicated effort
- Better patient outcomes
Chapter 3 shows what that coordination looks like in practice, governance and supervision included: Planning & preparation.
Part 05Where international recruitment fits
This is the heart of the chapter. International recruitment works best as the last lever pulled, not the first. It belongs at the end of a longer chain of workforce investment, and it weakens whenever it is asked to stand in for that chain.
The strongest strategies combine several of these rather than leaning on one. Recruit internationally without investing in retention and you simply swap one staffing problem for another; focus on retention alone and you may still fall short if too few graduates are coming through.
And there’s a newer constraint worth naming early. Increasingly, the limiting factor is neither recruitment nor registration but whether organisations have the supervision capacity to safely support internationally trained professionals into practice. A workforce plan has to account for that capacity before recruitment begins, which is where Chapter 3 picks up.
Key principles
Think beyond today’s vacancies
Plan for future demand rather than reacting to immediate shortages.
Invest in domestic development
Support education, clinical placements and graduate retention.
Use workforce intelligence
Base decisions on evidence, not assumptions.
Take a whole-system approach
Collaborate across organisations wherever you can.
Use international recruitment strategically
Recruit internationally where domestic supply can’t meet demand.
Measure long-term success
Success is better patient care, resilience and retention, not simply filled vacancies.
An Ethicare reflection
One of the biggest things I’ve noticed working across Australia and New Zealand is that organisations often focus on today’s vacancy rather than tomorrow’s workforce. International recruitment is sometimes viewed as a response to immediate pressure, when in reality it works best as part of a much broader strategy.
I’ve seen exceptional results where organisations plan ahead, invest in their domestic workforce, and use international recruitment strategically to address genuine gaps. No single initiative builds a strong workforce. Combining the right approaches at the right time does.
Before you recruit internationally: a checklist
- Do we understand our projected workforce demand over the next 5–10 years?
- Have we assessed domestic graduate supply?
- Do we know our retirement profile?
- Are we retaining the staff we already have?
- Have we identified our critical workforce risks?
- Could workforce redesign or advanced practice help?
- Have we decided where international recruitment will add the greatest value?
- How will we measure success?
Sources
- World Health Organization, health workforce projections to 2030.
- Health New Zealand / Te Whatu Ora, Health Workforce Plan 2023/24.
- Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care, Nursing Supply and Demand Study 2023–2035.
- OECD, International Migration Outlook 2025.
Building your international workforce?
We run international recruitment to this standard: ethical, prepared, supported and measured on retention. Let’s talk about doing it well.
